UCFSports.com - Game Preview: UCF vs. Rice

October 23, 2009

Chris Holland
UCFSports.com Football Analyst

UCF (3-3, 1-2 C-USA) makes its first road trip of the month to Rice after losing to No. 9 Miami last weekend, 27-7. The Hurricanes' Jacory Harris had 293 yards in the air in the victory; while UCF quarterback Brett Hodges threw for 163 yards and a touchdown pass to Rocky Ross.

The Rice Owls (0-7, 0-3 C-USA) come home after losing to East Carolina, 49-13, in Greenville, N.C. Wide receiver Toren Dixon led the Owls with eight catches, 115 yards and a touchdown, including an 80 yard catch and run in the second quarter.

Kickoff from Rice Stadium is set for 3:30 p.m. There is no television coverage, although internet video is available via All-Access subscription at UCFathletics.com.

More about Rice

Series Record: The series is tied at 1-1. UCF won the 2005 meeting at Rice, 31-28, while the Owls won a year later in Orlando, 40-29. UCF wide receiver Mike Walker tore his ACL in the 2005 game (Rice has since replaced their dated AstroTurf).

Head Coach: David Bailiff is 13-19 in his third season as head coach of the Rice Owls. He was previously head coach at his alma mater, Texas State, from 2004-2006. From 1997-2000, Bailiff was the defensive coordinator for the TCU Horned Frogs.

Team Stars: Wide receiver Toren Dixon has 36 receptions for 383 yards and two touchdowns. The 6-3, 212 pound WR is the biggest threat on offense for the Owls. He already has two touchdown receptions over 70 yards. He is even stronger than his frame appears, making him a tough player to bring down.

Free safety Andrew Sendejo has 64 tackles, 3 TFL and one interception. Probably the most consistent player on defense, Sendejo is Mr. Everything. Blitzing, pass coverage, hard hitting, and team captain. If only Rice had a few more people like him, they might not be one of the worst defenses in the country.

At 6-3, 264 pounds, defensive end Scott Solomon is in the same size category of East Carolina DE C.J. Wilson, but not with the same (though good) quickness. He does have that non stop motor like UCF's own Bruce Miller, which is what really makes him dangerous.

Offensive Style: Multiple set.

Defensive Style: 4-2-5.

Record: Rice is 0-7 and the margins have never been close either (twice they came within 17 points). The Owls opened up the season with three straight road losses at UAB (44-24), Texas Tech (55-10) and Oklahoma State (41-24) and then returned to Houston for a three game homestand against Vanderbilt (36-17), Tulsa (27-10) and Navy (63-14). Last week they lost at East Carolina (49-13).

Key Statistics

-Rice's yards per pass attempt differential for 2009: -3.8
-UCF's YPPAD for 2009: -0.8
-Rice comes into the game with the 116th ranked overall defense. They are equally bad against the pass (119) and the rush (112).
-Rice has 48 kickoff returns so far this year. That is a testament to how often they have been scored on. UCF has 26 after six games.
-Teams are scoring 90 percent of the time they get into the red zone on the Owls' defense.

Three Key Matchups

UCF's running game vs. Rice's 4-2-5. What you give up when you play a 4-2-5 defense is run defense. That scheme is built to stop spread offenses (Rice plays Houston, Tulsa, UTEP, and SMU every year). But having one fewer linebacker on the field opens up running lanes versus smaller defenders. Rice could put in another linebacker, but they are very thin at the position this year. They can drop down a safety, but he will be smaller than a linebacker. It also leaves open an already vulnerable secondary. This is a lose-lose proposition for Rice.

UCF secondary against the Rice passing game. Two true freshmen have already cracked the starting lineup for the Knights-- CB Josh Robinson and SS Kemal Ishmael. They both are proving to be playmakers. Rice is a pass first offense, but with a subpar offensive line. That could lead to a lot of hurried throws, and possibly turnovers. Rice WR Toren Dixon, even with his lower production compared to 2008 (50 receptions, 598 yards, four touchdowns), is still a threat (he had an 80 yard receptions against ECU last week). Taylor Wardlow, their H-back, is averaging over 10 yards a reception along with Dixon. It's only natural to not focus as hard on a winless team after playing a highly ranked team, but they cannot succumb to this.

UCF tight ends vs. Rice defense. Another soft spot for the 4-2-5 defense is covering a tight end. Having a large, strong TE is sometimes hard for a true safety to defend. This would normally be the job of the third or strong side linebacker in a normal 4-3 defense. This was best illustrated in UCF's 32-14 victory over Memphis in week five. UCF tight ends, versus the Memphis 4-2-5 defense, combined for six receptions, 99 yards, and one touchdown.

What To Look For

This is a game that plays into what UCF wants to do. Running the ball, winning time of possession, and making the opposing team one dimensional. But, once a team is winless this far into a season, it can be a trap. They can be more pugnacious than their record would indicate, especially considering that they won 10 games in 2008. It would not be surprising if the score is closer than expected.

The Line

UCF is favored by 10 (Click here for more college football lines)

Christopher Mesa's NCAA Football Score Calculator

UCF 34, Rice 17

UCF alumnus Christopher Mesa has developed a "NCAA Football Score Calculator" program, which analyzes season stats to predict not only a final score, but also passing yards, rushing yards and turnovers. Division I-AA teams are not included in the computations.

Click here for the NCAA Football Score Calculator

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