UCFSports.com - Game Preview: UCF vs. Marshall

October 31, 2009

Chris Holland
UCFSports.com Football Analyst

The UCF Knights (4-3, 2-2 C-USA) return to Orlando after defeating the Rice Owls 49-7 last week in Houston. UCF wide receiver A.J. Guyton pulled in 3 receptions for 103 yards and a touchdown and he also threw a 36 yard touchdown pass to fellow wideout Kamar Aiken. Kemal Ishmael led the Knight defense with 11 tackles.

The Marshall Thundering Herd (5-3, 3-1 C-USA) arrive in Orlando after dismissing the UAB Blazers 27-7 in Huntington, W.V. last weekend. Running back Darius Marshall, who is the nation's fifth leading rusher, gashed the Blazer defense for 133 yards and a touchdown.

More about Marshall

Series Record: UCF leads the series 4-3. Marshall won every meeting when both schools competed in the Mid-American Conference (2002-04), but the Knights have won every meeting since the pair joined Conference USA in 2005.

Head Coach: Mark Snyder is in his fifth year as head coach at his alma mater and he comes into Sunday's game with a head coaching record of 21-34. Snyder still holds the single season interception record for Marshall, pulling in 10 in 1987. He coached at UCF in 1989 and 1990, the last year serving as a part time linebackers coach. He then moved on to become defensive coordinator at Youngstown State (1991-1996), Minnesota (1996-2000) and finally Ohio State (2001-2004). He reunited with his former boss Jim Tressel at Ohio State, helping them win the 2002 BCS National Championship.

Team Stars: Running back Darius Marshall (168 att for 952 yards and 10 touchdowns) comes into this game as CUSA's leading rusher. What's impressive about the guy is that he doesn't have top line speed and is not the strongest running back you will ever see. His vision is the impressive part of his resume, like any good running back. This makes the opposing defense stay in their lanes, because Marshall has the ability to cut back against a weak side defender that over runs the play.

Tight end Cody Slate (43 receptions, 502 yards and 3 touchdowns) is projected to be a fourth to fifth round 2010 NFL Draft according to Neal Olsen and is one of the most dynamic tight ends in all of college football. He isn't the best blocker, but he is a great receiver.

Linebacker Mario Harvey (69 tackles, 4.5 TFL and 3 sacks) is a rangy, weak side linebacker who is seemingly in on every tackle. At 6 feet tall and 244 pounds, he is a great run stopper with good pass coverage skills.

Offensive Style: Multiple set, run dominant.

Defensive Style: 4-3 base.

Record: Marshall is 5-3, just one win away from bowl eligibility. The Herd opened the season with a narrow 31-28 win over Division I-AA Southern Miss and were crushed a week later at Virginia Tech (52-10). Marshall then went on a two-game winning streak against Bowling Green (17-10) and Memphis (27-16). They lost to East Carolina, 21-17 and then defeated Tulane on the road, 31-10. They were defeated by West Virginia 24-7 and are coming off a 27-7 home win against UAB.

Key Statistics

-Marshall's Yards Per Pass Attempt Differential is -0.1
-UCF's YPPAD is 0.4, and is treading upward. This indicates UCF is producing more big plays.
-Marshall is below average against the run, giving up 175 yards a game. However they respectable in pass defense giving up 175 yards in the air, good enough to be ranked 38th in the nation.
-Other than Harvey, no UCF running back has over 100 yards rushing this season. Harvey has the most with 77 yards.

Two Key Matchups

UCF Defensive Tackles against the Marshall interior linemen. Marshall isn't too unlike UCF in that they like to run the ball, eat time of possession, and play action pass. UCF defensive tackles Torrell Troup and Travis Timmons are a major reason why the Knights are ranked 11th nationally in rush defense. While they both clog the lanes, Troup has shown heightened playmaking ability lately by pushing the pocket into the quarterback and blowing up screen passes before they have a chance to develop. Marshall counters with guards Jimmy Rogers and Roger Tillman along with center Chad Schofield. The three pave the way for Darius Marshall and the 59th ranked rushing offense.

Marshall's play action versus UCF's safeties. With Marshall's play action, safeties Kemal Ishmael and Michael Greco have to be disciplined. Marshall quarterback Brian Anderson is a pocket passer who can toss the ball deep. UCF likes to show a lot of Cover Three, with strong safety Ishmael walking up to linebacker depth to help against the run. It will be up to Greco to use his extraordinary speed to help break up any deep passes.

What To Look For

Jarvis Geathers is the sack leader in C-USA with seven (tied for eighth in the nation). If the Knights can keep the Herd to 2nd and 3rd and longs, expect Geathers and Bruce Miller (6.5 sacks) to continue their reign of terror against opposing quarterbacks.

Both teams have the same offensive philosophy: run the ball, eat the clock and keep the opposing offense off the field. Short of several big plays, the winner of the time of possession battle will win this game.

The Line

UCF is favored by 7 (Click here for more college football lines)

Christopher Mesa's NCAA Football Score Calculator

UCF 23, Marshall 19

UCF alumnus Christopher Mesa has developed a "NCAA Football Score Calculator" program, which analyzes season stats to predict not only a final score, but also passing yards, rushing yards and turnovers. Division I-AA teams are not included in the computations.

Click here for the NCAA Football Score Calculator

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