UCFSports.com - Game Preview: UCF vs. Texas

November 6, 2009

Chris Holland
UCFSports.com Football Analyst

The UCF Knights head to Austin, Tex. after a late, comeback win over the Marshall Thundering Herd, 21-20, last Sunday night in Orlando. Quarterback Brett Hodges threw for a career high 342 yards and two touchdowns, including the game clincher to wide receiver Rocky Ross to seal the win for the home team.

The No. 2 ranked University of Texas Longhorns were also on the road last week, defeating the Oklahoma State Cowboys 41-14 in Stillwater, Okla. Cody Johnson ran for two short touchdowns while Curtis Brown and Earl Thomas returned interceptions for touchdowns on defense to propel the Longhorns past the Cowboys.

More about Texas

Series Record: Texas leads, 1-0. Only prior meeting was the 2007 opener of UCF's Bright House Networks Stadium, which Texas won 34-31.

Head Coach: Mack Brown has been the head coach of the Longhorns since 1998 and has a 123-26 record at the school, including a Rose Bowl win in 2005 to claim the national championship. From 1988 to 1997, Brown was the head coach at the University of North Carolina, amassing a 69-46 record. In his last season in Chapel Hill, he coached the Tar Heels to a 10-1 record and No. 4 AP Poll ranking. Prior to that, Brown had short stints as the head coach at Tulane (1985-1987) and Appalachian State (1983). He also served as the offensive coordinator at Oklahoma (1984) and Iowa State (1980-1981). After transferring from Vanderbilt University, Brown graduated from Florida State University in 1974.

Team Stars: Quarterback Colt McCoy. The senior Heisman candidate might not have the most impressive stats with 1,977 yards passing and 15 touchdowns, but it's his efficiency that propels the Texas offense. He is completing 72 percent of his passes, mostly on short and medium range throws. He will toss the occasional deep ball, but that is not his strength. The unquestioned leader of the team has one mission before he jumps to the League next year: Win a national title.

Defensive end/linebacker Sergio Kindle. When Kindle gets into a three point stance, he has one target... the quarterback. His stats say he has only two sacks and 34 tackles, which doesn't sound impressive after eight games (especially compared to nine sacks and 50 tackles in 2008), but the stat that shows how intimidating he can be is his 20 recorded quarterback hurries. I would expect tight ends Adam Nissley and Ricky Kay to help chip block Kindle on obvious passing downs.

Offensive Style: Spread.

Defensive Style: 4-3 base.

Record: Texas is 8-0 this season. Outside of a three-point win over rival Oklahoma and a 10-point victory over Texas Tech, the Longhorns have blown out every opponent this season.

Key Statistics

-The Longhorn offense is averaging 417.8 yards per game.
-Texas has an unbelievable red zone scoring percentage (FGs plus touchdowns) of 95%.
-Texas has 1.9 yards per pass attempt differential. This figure shows how large of a difference there is between Texas' efficiency on offensive and the lack of efficiency by the offense of their opponents. In short, the more big plays (over 20 yards) you make, the larger this number gets.
-UCF has a 0.1 YPPAD.
-Texas starts off the game by knocking out their opponents. UCF tends to win games in the second half of games. -
Texas 74 106 96 58 334
Opponents 26 38 21 24 109
UCF................. 35 34 57 67 - 193
Opponents........... 24 64 40 26 - 154

With most teams, jumping on them early takes away their motivation. Keep in mind that UCF has not forced a ton of turnovers to keep teams at 19.25 points per game. Seeing as the Knights have come from behind to win four of their five wins, it will be interesting to see how this plays out in the second half.

Two Key Matchups

WR Jordan Shipley vs. UCF secondary. The sixth year senior for Texas is their go-to wide receiver, on top of his kick return duties. His combination of crisp route running and deceptive speed is a dream for an offensive coordinator. He reminds me of a faster version of former St. Louis Ram Isaac Bruce in the way he always finds the open space in a defense. UCF cornerbacks Josh Robinson and Justin Boddie will line up to limit his production Saturday afternoon. Both are capable of playing man-to-man and zone. They both have had a tendency to not get their head turned around when they are running with an opposing receiver on a deep route. However, Texas doesn't go deep often, so this works in their advantage. I'd be shocked if both weren't in a Cover 3 or Cover 1 for the majority of the game, tasked to keep Shipley in front of them at all costs.

UCF offensive line vs. Texas front seven. This, more than anything, will decide the game. The UCF offensive line, lead by senior center Ian Bustillo, has gotten better over the course of the year. They still struggle at the point of attack sometimes, but are getting better at pass coverage. There were some blitzes picked up in the Marshall game that might have gotten through earlier in the season. Now they face their toughest test of the year. A talented defense that is directed by quite possibly the best defensive coordinator in the nation, Will Muschamp. Muschamp has all the weapons at his disposal that are required to stop any kind of offense. If the Knights go to a quick passing, misdirection rushing spread in this game that they have been evolving into, the Knight offensive line will be asked to hold their blocks for short periods of time. Look out for guards Abre Leggins and Cliff McCray against DT Lamarr Houston. Keeping him from pushing the pocket into Hodges face is of utmost importance.

What To Look For

Texas kicker Justin Tucker has 10 touchbacks on the season and a kickoff average of 64.2 yards. This could severely limit UCF's kickoff return unit, which is ranked 14th nationally with 26.19 yards per return (as of October 31st?Marshall stats are not included).

The Line

Texas is favored by 35 (Click here for more college football lines)

Christopher Mesa's NCAA Football Score Calculator

Texas 35, UCF 15

UCF alumnus Christopher Mesa has developed a "NCAA Football Score Calculator" program, which analyzes season stats to predict not only a final score, but also passing yards, rushing yards and turnovers. Division I-AA teams are not included in the computations.

Click here for the NCAA Football Score Calculator

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