Published Oct 16, 2009
Game Preview: UCF vs. Miami
Chris Holland
UCFSports.com Football Analyst
UCF, coming off a bye week, last played a scrappy Memphis Tigers squad, winning 32-14, led by tough-nosed running back Brynn Harvey, who ran for 219 yards and one touchdown.
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The ninth-ranked Miami Hurricanes arrive in Orlando after beating FCS opponent Florida A&M, 48-16, at home. Reserve running back Damien Berry rushed for 162 yards in his 2009 debut. Most of the starters were pulled early as the game got out of hand.
More about Miami
Series Record: UCF is 0-1 vs. Miami. UM won last year's meeting in Miami Gardens, 20-14.
Head Coach: Randy Shannon is in his third season as head coach at Miami. As a player for UM, Shannon was an outside linebacker and started for the 1987 National Championship team. He had a brief playing career with the Dallas Cowboys before returning to Miami as a graduate assistant in 1991. He coached the defensive line and linebackers for both the Hurricanes and Miami Dolphins before being hired as the defensive coordinator in 2001. His defenses had an average national total defensive ranking of ninth in his six years as defensive coordinator. In 2007, was announced as the new head coach of the Hurricanes, and has a 16-14 record since then.
Team Stars: Quarterback Jacory Harris is 85-of-136 for 1,225 yards, 10 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He has all the intangibles: intelligence, poise and leadership. The comparisons to former Hurricane QB Ken Dorsey are spot on.
Linebacker Sean Spence, with 24 tackles and 3.5 TFL, is a playmaker. That's what he is, and it can't be taught. He will be around the ball all game long, and will be a force. He wasn't the highest rated linebacker coming into Miami in the class of 2008 (that would be backup Arthur Brown), but he has made the most impact in his year and a half of playing time.
Running back Javarris James (297 yards and three TDs on 55 carries) and Graig Cooper (200 yards, 43 carries, one TD) share the load in the backfield. James is a relative of former 'Canes RB Edgerrin James. Cooper is more explosive and has natural speed, but James is a better all-around running back.
Offensive Style: Pro style. Shannon was not a fan of going to the spread offense like his last offensive coordinator wanted to.
Defensive Style: 4-3 base.
Record: Miami is 4-1 this season... They opened the season with wins against Florida State (38-34) and Georgia Tech (33-17), then lost at Virginia Tech (31-7) under rainy, soggy conditions. They are coming off home wins against Oklahoma (21-20) and Florida A&M (48-16).
Two Key Matchups
  • Brynn Harvey vs. 'Canes rush defense. Harvey is a battering ram of a running back. He is most comfortable running between the tackles, but can break a run outside the tackles every once in a while like his touchdown run in the fourth quarter against Memphis. But the 'Cane defense will be the most athletic he has faced to date. They are ranked 38th in overall defense, but 78th against the rush. The Canes will be missing a few defensive linemen due to injury, but the backups are just as formidable.
  • Bruce Miller vs. LT Jason Fox and LG Orlando Franklin. Bruce Miller has shown he is a big game player in the past. He almost single handedly brought UCF back against USF in 2008 with an interception and forcing USF's QB out of bounds in a key second down play. He was also dominant against Tulsa in the 2007 C-USA Championship game. No matter if he plays at DT or DE, he is a high motor guy who has a history of making plays. Miller had three sacks in the 2008 game against the Hurricanes, finishing with four tackles, all for a loss. Going up against arguably the best two Hurricane offensive linemen (both are 6-foot-7 compared to Miller's 6-foot-2), he will have his work cut out for him. He won't surprise Miami this year.
  • Key Statistics
    -Miami has a 2.0 yards per passing attempt differential over the course of the season, while UCF has a -0.1 differential.
    -Miami 8 turnovers (5 INT, 3 fumbles) Opponent 5 turnovers (2 INT, 3 fumbles)
    -Miami has 10 sacks on defense, but also has allowed 10 sacks.
    -Like many Hurricane teams of the recent past, they are a heavily penalized team. 40 penalties for an average of 66 yards a game.
    -Opponent punt return average against UCF: -0.7
    What To Look For
    Time of possession. In two of the Knights' three wins, they won the time of possession battle (Samford won TOP 30:22 to UCF's 29:38). This is what UCF's offense is geared for. Tough, straight ahead running with timely play action. UCF's goal should be to hold onto the ball more than 35:00 minutes.
    Points off turnovers. Jacory Harris has been a playmaker, but he has also thrown seven interceptions. When UCF gets a turnover, can they make Miami pay for the mistake?
    UCF has scored more points in the second half of it's five games than in the first half.
    SCORE BY QUARTERS 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Total
    -------------------- --- --- --- --- ---
    UCF................. 14 20 36 46 - 116
    Opponents........ 17 44 27 12 - 100
    I don't feel they can get away with that against Miami. Unlike the first five teams UCF has faced, Miami has a good running game, and will just run away with the game if UCF falls behind early.
    Injuries
    -UCF LB Chance Henderson (ACL, out for the year)
    -UCF WR Khymest Williams (ACL, out for the year)
    -UCF TE Corey Rabazinski (ACL, out for the year)
    -UM DT Marcus Forston (ankle, out for the year)
    -UM TE Richard Gordon (arm, out for the year)
    -UM DT Josh Holmes (lower extremity, out for this game)
    -UM DE Eric Moncur (lower extremity, out for this game)
    -UM WR Aldarius Johnson (shoulder, out for this game)
    -UM FB Patrick Hill (ankle, out for this game)
    -UM DB Joseph Nicolas (shoulder, out for this game)
    -UM DB Randy Phillips (forearm, out for this game)
    -UM OG Joel Figueroa (lower extremity, doubtful)
    The Line
    Christopher Mesa's NCAA Football Score Calculator
    Miami 28, UCF 20
    UCF alumnus Christopher Mesa has developed a "NCAA Football Score Calculator" program, which analyzes season stats to predict not only a final score, but also passing yards, rushing yards and turnovers. Division I-AA teams are not included in the computations.