Will UCF and Houston be battling for "Space" supremacy, the dawning of a new Big 12 rivalry?
That remains to be seen but at least for the Knights, there's a lot on the line in this regular season finale.
For our preview, I caught up with Ryan Monceaux of GoCoogs.com. Monceaux has been covering UH for more than 25 years.
UCF and Houston have been familiar foes due to their shared time in Conference USA and the American Athletic Conference. The Knights lead the all-time series 7-3, though the two schools haven't met since 2020.
UCF is 5-6 following last week's loss at Texas Tech, so this is a must-win game for bowl eligibility.
Meanwhile, Houston is out of bowl contention. The Cougars are 4-7, coming off back-to-back losses to Cincinnati and Oklahoma State.
Both UCF and Houston are 2-6 in their first Big 12 season. UCF has wins against Cincinnati and Oklahoma State; Houston has defeated West Virginia and Baylor.
UCF is currently a 13.5 point favorite to win this Saturday.
All four Big 12 newcomers (UCF, Houston, BYU, Cincinnati) were ecstatic to receive the invitation in Sept. 2021, but it was especially sweet for Houston. It has been widely circulated UH was originally to be included in the 1996 Big Eight/Southwest Conference merger that resulted in the creation of the Big 12, but political pressure forced UH to be swapped for Baylor. The Cougars essentially dropped down to college football's second tier and joined Conference USA.
"Baylor, Texas Tech and TCU, those are who you believe to be your peers," Monceaux said. "U of H gets to go back to playing them on a more consistent basis and that was a big deal. This year they played all three plus Texas. You got all four. That was a cool deal. Two at home, two away.
"Getting into the Big 12 mattered a lot, but establishing these rivalries, this is important. This would be like for a UCF fan playing Florida or Florida State. You talk about it 365 days a year. It's that important. Before two weeks ago, Houston hadn't played Baylor in 27 years."
This is the fifth season at Houston for head coach Dana Holgorsen. The Cougars were 12-2 in 2021 (lost in the AAC CCG to Cincinnati) and 8-5 in 2022, their final year in the AAC.
What were the expectations going into this first season in the Big 12?
"I think expectations were fairly reasonable based on getting a brand-new quarterback," Monceaux said. "You just lost a quarterback (Clayton Tune) to the NFL Draft that started 40-plus games. You got a new quarterback (Donovan Smith) that had slid down the depth chart at Texas Tech and having to re-invent who you are. Going into this league and playing these games, I think most people thought 4-8 to 6-6 or 7-5, generally in that area.
"You've got four wins and two of them were ugly. One of your losses was horrific. You lost to Rice in overtime. You cannot lose to Rice. It's a no. It's like FIU for UCF. You just can't lose to them. Rice is three miles down the road. Players see each other at bars, parties, whatever. You can't lose to them. They were up 28-0 at one point and U of H rallied and tied it with 15 seconds left and then lost in overtime.
"That loss sent the expectations up in the air. Then you haven't competed for so many games. TCU game, you didn't score an offensive touchdown. Texas, you were down 21-0. Kansas State, you got shutout 41-0. Didn't play well against Baylor. Cincinnati blew your doors off. And you didn't play well against Oklahoma State even though you had a lead going into halftime.
"The offense has struggled to score touchdowns. The defense has been a problem. But if your offense cannot score touchdowns, you're going to have a huge problem in this league."
Offensively, Houston is averaging 21.9 points in Big 12 play, which is No. 11 in the league.
If Houston wanted to keep hopes alive for six wins and a bowl berth, those chances took a major hit on Nov. 11 when they lost their homecoming game to Cincinnati, 24-14. Monceaux says UH quarterback Donovan Smith seems to get rattled by interior defensive line pressure and UC defensive tackle Dontay Corleone harassed him all game.
"They couldn't finish drives, just a lot of frustrating drives," Monceaux said.
Donovan Smith has become more of a dual-threat quarterback in this latter half of the season. While he was mostly mistake free in the first half of the year, he's become more turnover prone of late with an interception in each of the last five games.
"He's got to make smarter decisions," Monceaux said. "You look at his completion percentage and it's pretty good. But the yards and yards after catch aren't there. The big plays aren't there. You had one big play in the last game vs. Oklahoma State, a true freshman had a 60-yard catch. Then there was a trick play where Donovan caught a ball and scored. And then one more drive. That's only three touchdowns in that game.
"Same with Cincinnati. Against Baylor, you had two touchdowns in regulation. No touchdowns against Kansas State. You're just not scoring."
Monceaux said the right side of the offensive line has struggled at times. The starting center (Jack Freeman) missed the last game with an injury. Left tackle Patrick Paul will be a first-round NFL Draft pick. Tight ends are primarily used for blocking.
UH's No. 1 running back is true freshman Parker Jenkins, a former four-star recruit. He's a smaller back. No. 1 wide receiver Matthew Golden is out for the year, leaving Sam Brown (WVU transfer and a one-time UCF commit) and Joseph Manjack IV (USC transfer). Dalton Carnes has emerged of late. He's a walk-on freshman that has started the last several games.
"(Carnes is) a guy willing to go over the middle and make the tough catch," Monceaux said. "He's a generous 5-foot-9. The pieces maybe are there, but you're struggling with injuries. There have been several concussions in the last few weeks. The offense hasn't been moving in the direction you'd hope."
Defensively, Houston is giving up 35.9 points per game in Big 12 play, which is next to last (No. 13) in the conference.
"Nelson Ceasar, No. 9, he's the bandit which is a defensive end position, he can do some things," Monceaux said. "He can even cover receivers which he did in the Oklahoma State game. He has 9.5 sacks on the year. He might be leading the Big 12 or one back.
"The defensive backfield has struggled this year. They gave up 15 catches to a kid at Oklahoma State who is 5-foot-8. That was a major overhaul this year. You brought in a kid from New Mexico and one from Texas Southern, an FCS school here in Houston. It's been a struggle.
"It's been a struggle at linebacker though they're getting better. You've had some injuries at nose tackle. He's a pretty good player, Chidozie Nwankwo, but he's in and out with foot/leg injuries. He wins that battle up front. He usually has to be double teamed."
Is Dana Holgorsen on the hot seat? Could a loss to UCF send him packing? Monceaux explained the Houston dynamic with billionaire boster and UH Chairman of the Board of Regents Tilman Fertitta.
"He is in charge, basically, and he loves Dana," Monceaux said. "He does not believe the fanbase is interested in changing coaches. I see a whole different thing, just social media, our website and interacting with people. The only thing people want to ask me is, 'When is Dana getting fired?'
"I don't think it's happening this year. If it did, I'd be mildly surprised because of everything that's been said and how they've handled firing and coaching changes here."
Houston's 2024 recruiting class only has eight commits and is ranked dead last in the Big 12. Holgorsen plans to go all in via JUCOs and the Transfer Portal.
"42 new players this year," Monceaux said. "And it will be more in 2024. They like JUCO players. I think there's some value there because of all the FBS guys getting a COVID year. With the 85 scholarships, a lot of players that could have gone FBS instead go to JUCO. They're not doing much in terms of high school recruits."
Could this become a future "space" rivalry? UH head coach Dana Holgorsen recently took issue with UCF's embrace of space. During a recent radio show, Holgorsen brought it up in the context of watching Oklahoma State facing UCF in the annual Space Game.
"I don't know what the heck they are, but (UCF was wearing) some blue unis," Holgorsen said. "Some Space City thing. I thought we were Space City... (The launch pad) is like 45 minutes away (from Orlando). It's not close. They don't say, 'Orlando, we got a problem.'"
While other Houston teams have embraced the "Space City" moniker - the MLB's Astros being the big one with their "City Connect" alternate jerseys - Monceaux said UH really has not.
"U of H has done nothing to be Space U or Space City whereas UCF has," Monceaux said. "They've embraced it and made it their thing. Yeah, Houston has just as much claim to that as the Orlando area but UCF went and did it. U of H is coming back after the fact and griping about it."
Lastly, Monceaux spoke of the excitement surrounding Houston men's basketball and this inaugural season in the Big 12. Kelvin Sampson's Cougars are currently ranked No. 6.
"It's going to be a blast," Monceaux said. "The way the schedule works out, in the last two or three weeks you get Baylor, Texas and Kansas all coming to Houston. That's stout. This team is really good. Kelvin Sampson thinks they're really good and he's not built to think that. But he does. He likes this team. There's depth. There's frontline shooting. They're tough. If they play defense the way they've played defense over the last eight years, it's going to be a fun year."
Check out Ryan and his work at GoCoogs.com. He also has a Youtube channel with live streams following football and basketball games.
