Can UCF build on their winning streak and finish 2023 on a high note?
After back-to-back wins against Cincinnati and No. 15 Oklahoma State, the Knights are Lubbock-bound this weekend for their final Big 12 road game at Texas Tech, which like UCF has a 5-5 overall record and looking for bowl eligibility.
For our preview, we caught up with Aaron Dickens of Red Raider Sports on the Rivals.com network. Dickens has covered Texas Tech since 2005 and also hosts a daily radio show in Lubbock.
Texas Tech is in the western part of the state, a solid five-hour drive from the Dallas-Fort Worth area. Dickens says the DFW Metroplex is the biggest hub of alumni and students. In addition to hometown support, Dickens says Tech draws a lot of their season ticket base from the Midland/Odessa area.
Dickens believes Texas Tech is the dominant team in west Texas, though University of Texas still garners a lot of support statewide.
This is the second season under Joey McGuire, who had been coaching at Baylor in various roles since 2017 but was probably better known in Texas as the head coach of Cedar Hill High School from 2003-2016 where he won three state championships.
Dickens said during the Nov. 2021 coaching search several names were bandied about, including SMU head coach Sonny Dykes (who had yet to move to TCU) and UTSA head coach Jeff Traylor before Tech locked in with McGuire.
Following an 8-5 debut in 2022, expectations were high entering 2023. Texas Tech received first-place votes in the preseason poll and were predicted to finish in fourth place.
The Red Raiders opened the season with a pair losses: A double-overtime loss at Wyoming and an eight-point defeat to Oregon. They are 4-3 in the Big 12 with wins against Houston, Baylor, TCU and Kansas, and losses to West Virginia, Kansas State and BYU.
During the preseason, McGuire seemed optimistic they were fielding a Big 12 contender and didn't back down from the hype.
"Even McGuire himself was saying this year's team would beat last year's team by two touchdowns," Dickens said. "He'd throw in some barbs to Texas like, 'We want to win the Big 12 before they leave.'"
Dickens said it had been fairly smooth sailing for McGuire since his hire, which included major wins on the recruiting trail and a successful first year in 2022 that included a home win against Texas.
"That was a huge stock boost for McGuire, more than beating a Kansas State or Baylor," Dickens said. "He also beat Oklahoma. They had a bowl win and finished 8-5 following a string of misery under (former coaches) Matt Wells and Kliff Kingsbury. It was all roses."
Nobody was expected a 5-5 season at this point. They were fully expecting to be in the Big 12 title race.
As for quarterback, sixth-year senior Tyler Shough suffered a season-ending injury during their Big 12 opener against West Virginia. Backup Behren Morton has now taken over, but he's not 100 percent either. Morton has been dealing with a shoulder injury.
"If you watched the Kansas game at all, not a lot of zip on the ball," Dickens said. "I think they're trying to scheme around him. There's only so much you can do. If you're a Tech fan, that's a major concern."
Texas Tech running back Tahj Brooks is the nation's No. 6 leading rusher with 1,166 yards. He's rushed for 100 or more yards in seven of their last eight games (the outlier was a 98-yard performance).
"He's a physical runner," Dickens said. "He has really good feet. He's not going to run away from anybody. He's not going to make one person miss and it's six. But he's very patient. He'll let things develop and he's very tough to bring down at the line of scrimmage. He'll dance around. It's tough to get him for a loss. He's more workhorse than big play."
In a nod to the Mike Leach and Kliff Kingsbury eras, Dickens says Texas Tech fans are well schooled on what quality passing offenses look like. And the 2023 Texas Tech offense has not cut it from a passing standpoint.
"This passing offense is just rotten," Dickens said. "There are multiple reasons for that. You can't just pin it on play calling or quarterback injuries. You don't have a consistent playmaker at receiver. Myles Price, No. 1, is an older player, a veteran. He'll get some tough yards and a tough catch, but he won't make one person miss and out-run anybody. Coy Eakin is No. 8, a freshman, he's done some good things but just a freshman and won't make anybody pay for one missed tackle. After that, you have a bunch of guys."
The lack of development within the passing game could have something to do with the quarterback situation. Due to the bad shoulder, Behren Morton's practice reps have been limited to save him for the games.
Defensively, Texas Tech has decent numbers against Big 12 competition: No. 4 in scoring defense (24.0) and No. 3 in total defense (368.9 yards).
"They gave up some big plays at Kansas last week," Dickens said. "They're not an elite unit, but they play hard and are generally disciplined. There are some good players there. On the interior of the defensive line, Jaylon Hutchings and Tony Bradford, 95 and 97, sixth-year seniors. They won't be first-round draft picks, but they're really good college defensive linemen.
"You've got some depth in the secondary. I think you have some pieces that you like. When you lose a first-round draft pick edge, that hurts. They're still trying to fix that. Tyree Wilson. But they've been solid. They don't get turnovers as much as you would like. They don't force as many negative plays as you'd like. They generally kind of get it done.
"Kansas State ran all over them, (quarterback) Avery Johnson. Probably their worst performance of the year. I think if you're Texas Tech, you look at John Rhys Plumlee getting healthier and that could be an issue. But generally they've been pretty consistent."
Dickens says he's not sure whether it's adjustments or in-game sign stealing, but Texas Tech's defense is generally stronger in the second half than the first half.
The winner of this game becomes bowl eligible. UCF still has a very winnable game the following week at home against Houston. Texas Tech has to end the season at Texas. Is this a "must win" for the Red Raiders?
"I think that's fair," Dickens said. "I don't think it's been enunciated as such but that's how everyone feels from a fanbase standpoint. I think Tech fans felt a lot better about this game three or four weeks ago. It's going to be tough. They all recognize that.
"I think the offense's performance in Lawrence last week was a big component of it. That Kansas defense is not elite. Only scoring 16 points against that KU defense was a little alarming. If you can't score more than that against UCF, you're not going to win."
Keys to beating UCF will be containing John Rhys Plumlee. Offensively, taking care of the football while doing enough in the passing game so UCF can't key in on running back Tahj Brooks.
"If they do that, they can win the game," Dickens said. "If they don't, it'll be a long night at Jones Stadium."
The second half of the interview was geared around learning more about Texas Tech.
Why is Texas Tech referred to as "Tortilla Tech?"
"If you're in the stadium on Saturday, for the opening kickoff there will be a deluge of tortillas tossed from the stands on to the field. Mostly from the student section. That tradition dates back 30-plus years. The exact origin has been lost to legend. I don't know anybody around here that takes Tortilla Tech as an insult."
UCF co-defensive coordinator David Gibbs has ties to Texas Tech. He was the Red Radiers' DC from 2015-18.
"Gibbs is an interesting guy," Dickens said. "I enjoyed his press conferences. Not a lot of coach speak. He'll tell you how it is. When Kingsbury hired him before the 2015 season, Gibbs was coming off a successful stint at Houston. That was viewed as a coup for Kliff and Tech. He improved the defense, though it became stale later on.
"I think Gibbs has a lot of strengths, but I don't think recruiting is at the top of that list. I think at some schools like UCF, maybe that's fine. You can cover that up with other people on staff.
"But with that Texas Tech staff, Kliff hated recruiting. Just abhorred it. When your head coach hates it and doesn't try to hide it, that trickles down to the rest of the staff. I think eventually it impacted the quality of defensive prospects they brought in, and I'm not pinning that all on Gibbs, but that took a toll."
As for the new Big 12 which will become a 16-team league next year, Dickens says Texas Tech folks are excited.
"They're excited because the Big 12 has been on offense and perceived as the aggressor," Dickens said. "You have to remember for fanbases of Texas Tech, Baylor, Iowa State or Kansas State, this league was on the verge of falling apart in 2010. Texas Tech would have been on the right side of that, but just barely. Longhorn Network, 10-team league, Missouri and A&M out, Nebraska out, etc. For five to eight years, the league was a punching bag. Dysfunctional. Unhappy. Taking shots from all corners, really.
"For the Big 12 to rebound from that gut punch in 2021 with Texas and Oklahoma leaving, pivot quickly to add four really good programs and then a couple years later steal four from a power conference, that's a huge mental boost... To have this added sense of security, it's comforting."
Texas Tech has always viewed Texas as a rival, though it wasn't reciprocated in the same way. In the remaining Big 12, Tech fans wanted to keep annual games with Oklahoma State. The Big 12 only assigned four permanent rivalry games in their future scheduling model: Arizona-Arizona State, Baylor-TCU, BYU-Utah and Kansas-Kansas State.
Texas Tech has been competitive from an NIL standpoint. Their primary collective, the Matador Club, made headlines last year when they promised a minimum of $25,000 annually to 100 football players. They have other team-wide deals, including the softball team receiving $10,000 per player.
"They were in the first group to embrace NIL wholeheartedly," Dickens said.
For fans traveling to Lubbock, Dickens says there are misconceptions about the city. It's not a metropolis like Dallas or Houston, but it's a good-size city with a population of 300,000. The Depot District is excellent for the brewery scene. Two Docs Brewing is a recommendation.
Texas Tech campus is "bustling" on game day. He recommends Chimy's for margaritas. Raider Alley is the popular tailgating area. There's always an entertainment act and this Saturday it's scheduled to be Smashmouth.
Dickens said Tech was a tough atmosphere in the 2000s under Mike Leach. The stadium is currently undergoing renovations, so UCF will use temporary locker rooms.
After becoming one of the original Under Armour schools in 2006, Texas Tech will be outfitted in Adidas beginning next year. Former Tech quarterback and Kansas City Chiefs superstar Patrick Mahomes, an Adidas ambassador, made the announcement a few weeks back. And it's quite likely Tech will eventually become a "Mahomes Brand" school, similar to what Nike does with Jordan.
Reflecting on Mahomes' Tech career, Dickens said it was always a "highlight show" every Saturday though it didn't always result in a win because Tech had poor defenses. During Mahomes' three seasons in Lubbock, Texas Tech finished with records of 4-8 (2014), 7-6 (2015) and 5-7 (2016).
Mahomes was the No. 10 pick in the 2017 NFL Draft.
"Tech fans aren't really surprised by what he's been able to do so far with the Chiefs," Dickens said.
