UCF vs. West Virginia Football Preview with Keenan Cummings of WVSports.com
At long last, UCF Football is back in the Bounce House.
It's been nearly a month since the Big 12 home opener against Baylor. The Knights welcome West Virginia for a 12 noon kickoff on FS1 in a game that's close to a "must win" for both teams.
UCF (3-4, 0-4 Big 12) is still searching for their first conference victory. West Virginia (4-3, 2-2 Big 12) got off a hot start, but is coming off a pair of tough losses to Houston and Oklahoma State.
For our preview, I caught up with Keenan Cummings of WVSports.com. Cummings grew up in Hurricane, W.Va. and attended WVU, first covering the Mountaineers as a student. He's been around the program a long time.
One thing I've always noticed is WVU's passionate fanbase. If you have any ties to the state of West Virginia, odds are you are a big-time Mountaineer fan. How important is WVU to the state?
"It wouldn't be an exaggeration to say it's everything," Cummings said. "I can speak to this because I'm very familiar. You have that little pocket in Huntington that roots for Marshall, but most of the state and it's in no offense to Marshall, but most of the state is Mountaineer fans.
"The thing about West Virginia is there's a lot of transplants. People are wondering how West Virginia puts up good TV numbers. There's a lot of people that root for West Virginia that no longer live in West Virginia, transplanted throughout the country. Play-by-play guy Tony Caridi has a saying: 'There's always a West Virginia connection.' If you look hard enough, there probably is... It's hard to find a more passionate group of fans for such a small population in the state."
From the outside anyway, nobody thought highly of WVU entering this season. Head coach Neal Brown was thought to be solidly on the hot seat and they appeared last in the Big 12 preseason poll, even behind all four newcomers.
"They were predicted 14th and they took that personally," Cummings said. "I thought this was a better team than many people projected. I've said this several times. It's hard enough to keep up with your own team anymore with the turnover and transfers. More or less trying to figure out what's going on at other schools. I think people looked at what West Virginia was returning and kind of made some guesses there.
"This is a team that for the most part through five weeks played great football."
They opened the season with a loss at Penn State, though competed. They got their first win against FCS Duquesne. Beating rival Pitt 17-6 in week three was a huge victory.
"It's as important as any game on the schedule," Cummings said. "Some fans would go 1-11 if they could beat Pitt."
The Mountaineers then opened their Big 12 schedule with a pair of wins against Texas Tech and TCU. Another win appeared to be well within their grasp at Houston earlier this month, only to lose it on a last-second Hail Mary.
"I've seen teams lose on Hail Marys, I'm not sure I've ever seen a team score a 50-yard touchdown with 12 seconds left only to lose on a Hail Mary," Cummings said. "Crazy sequence there."
Last week, WVU had a lead on Oklahoma State early in the fourth quarter before things began to unravel with turnovers.
"West Virginia finds themselves at 4-3," Cummings said. "The record isn't surprising, but how they got here, definitely. You had all that momentum. You're 4-1 and feeling good about yourself. There's a saying here, 'Trust the climb.' That's Neal Brown's saying. People were starting to get back on board. Then the last two weeks happened and the malcontent has set in again.
"I think this is a huge game for West Virginia, and UCF for that matter. Both teams need a win. I think it'll be interesting how West Virginia comes out in this game. Is this a team that's hungry and ready to put behind them what happened the last two weeks? Or a 'here we go again' type situation that's kind of defined Neal Brown's tenure here."
As Neal Brown has attempted to revive the WVU program, Cummings said it's like they've been "snakebitten."
"If you played a bingo card, I think this team in Neal Brown's five years has lost just about in every possible way you can lose," Cummings said. "Some of it is just crazy. An All-American center makes a bad snap, maybe the worst one of his career when they're looking to beat Oklahoma two years ago. A Hail Mary, completely collapsing on defense when your defense has played great all season. The seat is getting warmer, at least from a fanbase perspective. I'm talking for the fanbase. Administration is a different thing.
"But I've never seen such a sharp turn. If you go on our message boards, there was optimism. People were talking about being 8-1 going into Oklahoma and being a darkhorse. And now it's can this team win another game? Fans are down right now."
After UCF, WVU's remaining schedule - besides Oklahoma - is manageable though nothing ever comes easy in the Big 12. Their November stretch includes BYU (home), Oklahoma (away), Cincinnati (home) and Baylor (away).
"I think fans would love to see 8-4," Cummings said. "West Virginia has been in this league over a decade now. They know how it goes. This is the year to get it done. For all the things Neal Brown has done off the field and as good of a guy he is, he'd be the first one to tell you: It comes down to winning. And he's not won enough as the head coach at West Virginia."
WVU ranks 15th all-time in wins. They won six Big East championships from 2003-11.
"There's expectations here," Cummings said. "This is a proud program. I'm not saying anything he hasn't said. He's 26-28 I believe in five years. I don't think anyone associated with West Virginia would have thought that when they hired him for the job. It was a slam dunk.
"Everyone knew the first year or two would be rebuilding because Dana Holgorsen left the cupboard pretty bare. He had to build up the lines. He's done that, but you're seeing these same mistakes you saw in year one and year two. Once you lose fans, it's really hard to get them back... If they go on a losing streak here, it might get a little messy."
West Virginia's offense is led by quarterback Garrett Greene, a Florida native from Tallahassee.
"Neal (Brown) recruited him when he was at Troy," Cummings said. "He was one of the first offers that went out. He's a dual-threat guy that has developed as a passer. He's better now than he was before, more confident in the scheme. He's an excellent runner. If he gets out, he can make some things happen. He injured his ankle and missed two games earlier this year, Pitt and Texas Tech. The offense struggled.
"He has been the engine on the offense. This offense has gone how he's gone. They've opened it up and have been throwing the ball much better the last couple weeks. He threw for 391 yards against Houston. That's the most any quarterback has thrown since Neal Brown has been here. Had a pretty good performance last week (vs. Oklahoma State)."
WVU's leading rusher is CJ Donaldson, another Florida native (Miami Gulliver Prep).
"He's a bigger back," Cummings said. "He's actually a former tight end that never played running back before. Last year he broke out on the scene. They moved him there and performed really well. This year he seems hesitant at times. Chad Scott, the offensive coordinator who also coaches running backs, said this week, 'We've got to get him to stop thinking. Just run. Play free.' At times, he does seem to be a little more hesitant.
"Last week they put Justin Johnson in there. He's missed a lot of this season with injury and illness. He looked different and was more decisive and has got downhill quicker. I think that will motivate CJ."
While WVU is known for their rushing offense, Cummings says it could be a lot better. They've struggled to break tackles for big runs.
He says the offensive line is the strength of WVU's offense.
"Zach Frazier is an All-American type player at center. Wyatt Milum is on his way to a pro career at left tackle. Doug Nester at right tackle. I think they have 133 career starts coming into the season for the offensive line.
"Tight end Kole Taylor has been pretty good this year. They'll use him in the passing game.
"They've got a bunch of different receivers, but have struggled to find consistency there. Devin Carter is probably the No. 1 guy, a transfer from NC State. He's kind of found his footing the last couple weeks."
Defensively, WVU was playing well early in the season but has seen a recent downturn. They struggled with missed tackles in the Oklahoma State game, though the Cowboys have a difficult running back (Ollie Gordon) to contain.
Cummings sees the defensive line as as strength, particularly Sean Martin, Eddie Vesterinen and Mike Lockhart.
Lee Kpogba is their best linebacker. WVU has dealt with some injury issues at linebacker and safety.
Safety Aubrey Burks is back after a scary situation at Houston when he was carted off the field with a neck injury.
Recruiting wise, Florida has always been a big emphasis for WVU along with Pennsylvania, Ohio and Maryland. They tried to recruit Texas when they joined the Big 12, but didn't see much success there.
Cummings said Neal Brown is increasingly looking to the transfer portal to fill out the roster.
West Virginia joined the Big 12 in 2012 along with TCU as the replacements for Texas A&M and Missouri after those schools headed to the SEC. It's been a good marriage.
"I think fit wise, these schools are so much like West Virginia," Cummings said. "West Virginia was never a fit culturally in the Big East. You go to Oklahoma and it's like West Virginia without the mountains."
That being said, WVU fans have longed to be in a more geographically-friendly conference. Their biggest rivals remain the ones from their Big East days: Pitt and Virginia Tech.
"There's not a game that really moves the needle for this fanbase unless it's non-conference," Cummings said. "If you watched that Pitt game, take a look at the crowd. It was sold out with an electric atmosphere. Fans wanted that game back on the schedule. It's that missing element that makes college football fun. It's the downside of realignment. If you ask West Virginia fans, if in five or 10 years down the road the Big 12 could absorb Virginia Tech, Pitt, Louisville, NC State or Syracuse, take your pick, they would love this league. It would be perfect in every way."
For WVU to be successful against UCF, Cummings said they'll need an effective rushing game and just can't continue "beating themselves" which has cropped up in the last two games. Defensively, it's about getting back to the basics particularly with tackling.
Check out Cummings' work at WVSports.com.