Game Preview: UCF vs. Houston
The University of Central Florida Knights (5-4, 3-2 C-USA) return to Orlando following a 35-3 loss to the No. 2 Texas Longhorns. Freshman running back Jonathan Davis, with 71 yards rushing, racked up more yards than any running back has against the Longhorn defense this year. Texas wide receiver Jordan Shipley set a Texas record with 11 receptions for 273 yards and one touchdown.
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The 13th ranked University of Houston Cougars (8-1, 4-1 C-USA) are coming off a thrilling, last second victory at Tulsa, 46-45. Quarterback Case Keenum threw for 522 yards and three touchdowns. His last two passes set up a 51 yard Matt Hogan field goal to win the game with no time left on the clock.
More about Houston
Series Record: 1-1. UCF defeated Houston 31-29 at the Citrus Bowl in 2005 while the Cougars won the meeting in Houston a year later, 51-31.
Head Coach: Kevin Sumlin has a 16-6 record at Houston in his second year at the school. Sumlin served in several roles during his five year stint at the University of Oklahoma, including the special teams and tight end coach in 2002 and when he left in 2007 he was the wide receiver coach and co-offensive coordinator. Previous stops before Oklahoma were Texas A&M, Purdue and Minnesota. Sumlin played linebacker for Purdue University from 1983-1986 before graduating in 1988.
Team Stars: Quarterback Case Keenum is a dark horse Heisman candidate this year. The junior has led the Cougars to impressive victories against Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Mississippi State. Keenum's quick release and solid footwork has helped keep defenses from sacking him, having been sacked only 12 times in 2009. If the junior keeps up his current assault on the record books and the Cougs continue winning, expect to see this son of a coach at the Downtown Athletic Club in New York in early December.
Wide receiver James Cleveland is a 6-foot-1, 205-pound junior college player from Trinity Valley (Tex.) C.C. Cleveland has been one of Houston's most important signings of 2009 having stepped in to immediately become Keenum's top target. So far he has pulled down 74 receptions for 853 and 11 touchdowns in Houston's spread offense.
Offensive Style: Spread (Offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen helped lead the resurgence of Texas Tech from 2005 to 2007, bringing QB Graham Harrell and WR Michael Crabtree to national prominence).
Defensive Style: 4-3 (Defensive coordinator John Skladany held the same position at his last stop, UCF , in 2007.
Record: Houston is 7-1 and 3-1 in Conference USA. They opened the season with three consecutive wins over Northwestern State (55-7), No. 6 Oklahoma State (45-35) and Texas Tech (29-28), however lost the following week at UTEP (58-41). They've since reeled off five wins in a row against Mississippi State (31-24), Tulane (44-16), SMU (38-15), Southern Miss (50-43) and Tulsa (46-45).
Statistical Leaders
UCF
Passing: QB Brett Hodges 120-210, 57.1 comp %, 1558 yards, 10 TD, 7 INT
Rushing: RB Brynn Harvey 173 att, 679 yards, 3.9 avg, 7 TD
Receiving: WR A.J. Guyton 28 receptions, 431 yards, 1 TD
Tackles: LB Cory Hogue 72 tackles, 11 TFL, 2 sacks, INT
Sacks: (tied ) DE Bruce Miller, DE Jarvis Geathers 9 sacks
Houston
Passing: QB Case Keenum 325-458, 71.0 comp % 3815 yards 28 TD 5 INT
Rushing: RB Bryce Beall 126 att, 595 yards, 4.7 avg, 6 TD
Receiving: WR James Cleveland 74 receptions, 853 yards, 11.5 avg, 11 TD
Tackles: LB Marcus McGraw 95 tackles 4.0 TFL 2.0 sacks
Sacks: OLB Tyrell Graham 6.0 sacks
Key Statistics
-Houston's yards per pass attempt differential: +0.7 Houston makes a lot of big plays on offense (No. 1 ranked in total offense, scoring offense and passing offense). But they also gives up a large number on defense (116 overall ranked defense, 96 ranked scoring defense, and 114 ranked rushing defense) which accounts for this shockingly low differential for a 1 loss team.
-UCF's YPPAD: -0.6 UCF's has varied from a low of -0.8 to a high of 0.6.
-UCF has never beaten a ranked football team in since joining FBS in 1996.
-Blake Clingan has 19 fair caught punts in 2009. This is a very important factor in UCF's opponents having a punt return average of only 4.42 yards per return. Opponents have only returned 7 of Cligan's 46 punts so far this year, and only 2 have been touchbacks.
Two Key Matchups
The key to this success has been the quick release of Case Keenum and the improvement in the offensive line from 2008. The Knights bring two of the top 10 sackers in the nation (Bruce Miller and Jarvis Geathers who are tied for 8th nationally with nine sacks). I would expect to see more quick passes and screens from Houston to counter UCF's potent pass rush. Cornerbacks Josh Robinson has proved to be a great tackler in open space this year, and will be counted on along with the outside linebackers Lawrence Young and Derrick Hallman to negate the quick passing of Houston.
What To Look For
UCF has gone five for six against C-USA Western Division spread teams since joining CUSA in 2005.
Houston in 2005, with future Philadelphia Eagle Kevin Kolb running the offense. The Knights won 31-29.
Tulsa (twice in '07, loss in '05 ) with record setting QB Paul Smith (327 for 544 5065 yards, 60.1 comp%, 9.31 yards per attempt, 47 TD and 19 INT in 2007 ). Tulsa beat UCF 44-27 in the 2005 CUSA Championship game, but lost twice to UCF in 2007. 44-23 in the regular season, and 44-25 in the 2007CUSA Championship Game.
UTEP in 2007, winning 36-20 on Senior Day.
SMU in 2008, 31-17.
If you expand the list to all teams running the spread since 2005, the record is two more wins (both against Memphis) and two more losses (both to USF by a touchdown).
An argument could be made that the 2009 Houston is the best coached and best team of those listed. Case Keenum is about as hot as a quarterback could get right now, but so was Tulsa's Paul Smith in 2007. The combination of home field advantage, tough nosed defense and a running oriented offense appears to be a potent combination in favor of the Knights.
What's on the Line
UCF: With three division games left, UCF has a slim chance to still win the Eastern Division. That would require USM to lose one more conference game and ECU to lose two. UCF also needs one more victory to attain the sixth win needed for bowl eligibility.
Houston: Even though SMU is right behind Houston in the race to win the Western Division, Houston has the tiebreaker due to beating SMU earlier this year. A Houston loss combined with an SMU win would put the Mustangs in first place.
The Line
Houston is favored by 5.5 (Click here for more college football lines)
Christopher Mesa's NCAA Football Score Calculator
Houston 33, UCF 24
UCF alumnus Christopher Mesa has developed a "NCAA Football Score Calculator" program, which analyzes season stats to predict not only a final score, but also passing yards, rushing yards and turnovers. Division I-AA teams are not included in the computations.