Game Preview: UCF vs. SMU

The University of Central Florida Knights (9-3, 7-1 C-USA) return home to Orlando following a 37-17 win over the Memphis Tigers. Jeffrey Godfrey accounted for three touchdowns (one rushing, two in the air) with Jamar Newsome catching both touchdown passes. Linebackers Josh Linam and Lawrence Young both accounted for seven tackles on defense.

The Southern Methodist University Mustangs (7-5, 6-2 C-USA) defeated the East Carolina Pirates 45-38 in overtime last weekend to clinch the western division for the first time. Mustang running back Zach Line ran for a one yard touchdown in OT to give SMU the lead. Richard Crawford intercepted ECU quarterback Dominique Davis' pass to seal the win for SMU.

More about SMU

Series Record: 2-0 UCF. The Knights won the last match 31-17 in Orlando in 2008.

Head Coach: June Jones (16-21 at SMU, 92-62 overall in college) is the most well known proponent of the run and shoot offense, which he learned at Portland State as a quarterback for the inventor of the offense, Mouse Davis. He had stops in various college and pro leagues until he landed in Atlanta with the NFL's Falcons as the offensive coordinator in 1990, where his offense took the league by storm. He eventually would become the Falcons head coach, left the pros and landed at Hawaii in 1999. Jones was hired to be the Mustang head coach in 2008 after leading Hawaii to the Sugar Bowl.

Team Stars: QB Kyle Padron graduated from the legendary Texas high school football power Southlake Carroll (Alabama's Greg McElroy, North Texas' Riley Dodge, Mizzou's Chase Daniels), so he is used to pressure of being the focal point of the offense.

RB Zach Line is the not only the leading rusher for the Mustangs, he is the leading rusher for Conference USA, and the only SMU running back to have scored a rushing touchdown this season. He is not a burner, but can surprise you with his quickness.

Offensive Style: Run and shoot.

Defensive Style: 3-4.

Statistical Leaders

UCF

Passing: QB Jeffrey Godfrey, 128-190, 67.4 Comp %, 1490 yards, 12 TD, 6 INT

Rushing: RB Ronnie Weaver, 177 attempts, 855 yards, 11 TD

Receiving: WR Brian Watters, 38 receptions, 560 yards, 2 TD

Tackles: LB Derrick Hallman, 75 tackles, 7.5 TFL, 1 sack, 4 forced fumbles,, 1 INT

Sacks: DE Darius Nall, 7.5 sacks

Interceptions: Reggie Weams, 3 INT

SMU

Passing: QB Kyle Padron, 261-440, 59.3 Comp %, 3306 yards, 28 TD, 10 INT

Rushing: RB Zach Line, 209 attempts, 1297 yards, 10 TD, 6.2 yards per attempt

Receiving: WR Cole Beasley, 79 receptions, 976 yards, 6 touchdowns

Tackles: LB Taylor Reed, 122 tackles, 1.5 TFL, 1 recovered fumble

Sacks: WLB Ja'Gared Davis, 9 sacks

Interceptions: CB Richard Crawford, 4 INT

Key Statistics

-SMU's yards per pass attempt differential: +0.8

-UCF's YPPAD: +3.2

SMU run/pass ratio: 43.7/56.3

-UCF is +2 in turnover margin for 2010.

-SMU comes into this game with the 32nd ranked offense, and 20th ( 278 yards per game ) ranked passing offense, but the 74th ( 144 yards per game ) ranked rushing offense.

Games where Godfrey has fewer than two turnovers: UCF is 9-0

Games where Godfrey has two or more turnovers: UCF is 0-3

The UCF defense has held 9 of it's 12 opponents to a rushing average lower than their season average coming into the contest, and done it by an average of -1.1 yards per rush.

Three Key Matchups

SMU backside LB vs. UCF offense. UCF has played three games against teams that play a base 3-4 defense: South Dakota, Buffalo, and Houston, so the Knights aren't unfamiliar with this style of defense. Buffalo's WLB Kalil Mack had some success, notching a sack and 5 tackles. Houston's George Bamfo wasn't as successful (one tackle). Ja'Gared Davis of SMU leads the Mustangs in sacks with nine to go along with his 77 tackles, good enough for fourth on the team. He is the player that has to be game planned for on defense. One possible strategy could be to use H-back (a TE/WR hybrid position) Ricky Kay to pass protect on the backside, and possibly slip outside for catches in the vacated flat behind a blitzing Davis.

UCF run defense vs SMU RB Zach Line. Zach Line is the leading rusher in Conference USA for 2010, with 1297 yards and 10 touchdowns on 209 attempts. He is a strong runner with average speed, but with the defense spread out, he has gotten 6.2 yards per carry this year. Knowing UCF defensive coordinator Dave Huxtable, the focus of the defense will be to limit Line's effectiveness to make the Mustangs one dimensional on offense. This typically involves walking up free safety Kemal Ishmael to linebacker depth to help out. This week, playing against a defense that likes to stretch the field vertically, the Knights may play more nickel (one extra cornerback on the field). A variation on this may be to take OLB Derrick Hallman, a former safety, and line him up as a cornerback on a slot WR, giving the Knights a nickel look and versatility with a linebacker's tackling skills and toughness.

SMU WR Aldrick Robinson vs UCF CB Josh Robinson. Aldrick Robinson is the outside receiver in the June Jones' run and shoot offense, the same position that Andre Rison played in Atlanta with the NFL's Falcons. Josh Robinson will typically line up on the outside receiver of any team, with the nickel back lining up on the slot receiver. While UCF will focus on stopping the running of Zach Line first and foremost, SMU will try to throw the deep ball when the opportunity arises.

Tulane coach Bob Toledo even noted in an Orlando Sentinel article that he tried to take advantage of the Knight cornerbacks deep, but just didn't make the plays. With the point of the run and shoot offense being to stretch the field vertically, this is a key match up. The strength of the run and shoot versus the weakness of the Knights defense. Aldrick Robinson is said to one of the faster players in Conference USA, but Josh Robinson is also in that category. If Kyle Padron gets enough time, where he throws the ball to his WR will be a huge factor in the success of this matchup. If he can put the ball in a place for his guy to make a move, the Mustangs could take advantage of this Knight weakness.

What to Look For

The punt return game for UCF. Josh Robinson has breathed life into the Knight punt return unit. He is averaging 17.8 yards per return, and has come close to breaking one for a touchdown in all of the last three games. SMU has been decent this year, allowing 4.9 yards per punt return.

Keep an eye out for for SMU freshman Darryl Fields, a high three star freshman running back who was expected to compete for playing time this year, but has only eight carries for 28 yards.

What's on the Line

UCF: Solidifying the claim as the top dog in Conference USA, earning a 10th win for the second time in program history, and winning the first game as a ranked team. It is possible, with a UCF win and FSU loss, that UCF could be the highest ranked Florida team going into bowl season.

SMU: Another step on the long climb back from the death penalty in the 1980s. June Jones took SMU to their first bowl game ( Hawaii Bowl ) since 1984. Now they are fighting for the conference championship.

The Line

UCF is favored by 9.