UCF vs. Boise State Football Preview with B.J. Rains of Bronco Nation News
It's a big game in the Pacific Northwest this weekend.
UCF is making the 2,000+ mile trek to Idaho to take on the Boise State Broncos, the return trip of a series that began with the 2021 season opener in Orlando. That was the head coaching debut for Boise State's Andy Avalos and the first game at UCF for Gus Malzahn. Boise State raced off to a 21-0 lead, but UCF battled back to come out victorious, 36-31.
To get ready for the matchup, which will kick off at 7 p.m. EST on FS1, I spoke with B.J. Rains of Bronco Nation News . He says this could be one of the biggest games in a decade as Boise looks to rebound from a 56-19 loss at Washington in the opener.
UCF is making their debut as a member of the Power Five this season, something that won't be lost on the Boise State fanbase.
The Knights were among four Group of Five schools that got the call-up to the Big 12, yet Boise State - arguably the most successful G5 program over the past 20-plus years - did not.
"Especially playing UCF this week, Boise State fans are probably a little bit jealous," Rains said. "They feel like, on the field for a longer period of time, they've had more success than UCF. I know UCF fans would argue that with the National Championship that they claim. Boise State fans frankly see that as a joke. They obviously had their own undefeated seasons and didn't come forward with that.
"They feel they set the path. They've got the three New Year's Six/BCS wins themselves. They started obviously earlier if you go back to the 2000s. Boise State fans will look at the 20 years and feel they're the stronger program over time. To see UCF get the Big 12 invite and not them, I think a lot of them were disappointed and like I said, probably a little bit jealous. They wish that was them. I think that's a side story for the fans to prove we're just as good as UCF."
There were rumors at one point Boise State and Memphis could be considered in a later wave of Big 12 expansion, though that's unlikely now with the league offering refuge to PAC-12 members Colorado, Arizona, Arizona State and Utah.
Boise State was then hopeful they could perhaps align with a reconfigured PAC-12, but that's now unlikely with California and Stanford joining the ACC. It is now more likely the remaining PAC schools, Oregon State and Washington State, join with Boise State in the Mountain West.
That being said, Rains believes reaching the College Football Playoff will be much more attainable for Boise State moving forward.
"They want to get in the playoff obviously and the way the new format is, even if they switch it to 5+7 (five best conference champions plus seven at-large bids), one of these non-Power Four conference teams will get a guaranteed spot," Rains said. "You could argue Boise State has a better chance than UCF to get in the Playoff moving forward because they're going to have an easier schedule. They just need to win their schedule. It's probably more attainable in the Mountain West than to do it in the Big 12."
UCF opened their season with a 56-6 thrashing of Kent State. Meanwhile Boise State had to go to Seattle and face No. 10 Washington which features one of the nation's best offenses led by quarterback Michael Penix. The Broncos lost, 56-19.
"It was one of the largest margin of defeats they've had in 25 years," Rains said. "Not a pretty game. If you watched, I think in the second half the score got away from them a little bit. I wouldn't say it was a true 37-point margin. A fairer representation of the score was probably 42-19 or something. They certainly lost bad, but there were a couple late touchdowns that made it look worse.
"They were 15-point underdogs. Boise State was not supposed to win that game. They were supposed to lose by double digits, which they did. The final score wasn't what a lot of people expected, but I don't think a lot of honest Boise State fans expected to win the game."
Rains expects to see a much better performance against UCF.
"There were a lot of small things that were issues that I don't see being issues moving forward," Rains said. "They dropped six passes. Drops were not a problem last year and it's the same receivers. On key third downs, they had bad drops. They had a penalty that took away a first down that would have kept a drive going. They had a cleat issue with a lot of slipping on the turf. I'm not making excuses and saying Boise State would have won the game, but I think there were some easily correctable things that would have made the score much more respectable. They're confident they'll look much better against UCF on Saturday."
One of the more glaring stats from the loss at Washington was giving up 490 yards passing. Boise State was breaking in some new secondary starters having lost two safeties to the NFL.
"You had a lot of guys getting their first starts in the secondary that I think had some easy mistakes that can be corrected," Rains said. "I mentioned the slipping, not an excuse, but there was an issue with Boise State's cleats. On a couple (Washington) touchdowns, guys fell down or slipped and there were wide-open guys running down the field. Not to say they would have won the game, but at least two of those long 50-yard touchdowns, guys literally fell down coming off the line of scrimmage. They feel like there's some correctable things there."
Rains is not worried at all about Boise State's offense.
"I think the offense looked pretty good," Rains said. "The main issue is everybody thought going into the season they'd run the ball more. They have two of the best running backs (George Holani, Ashton Jeanty) in the Mountain West and a quarterback (Taylen Green) that rushed for 600 yards last year. A lot of people expected them to run the ball 65, 70 percent of the time.
"For whatever reason, they came out slinging the ball. They thought they had things to attack in the passing game against Washington and it didn't really work. I think they'll run the ball a lot more against UCF. I think you'll see more designed QB runs. I think they'll go back to their bread and butter, which is the running game."
Like UCF, Boise State sees this game as a measuring stick.
"UCF is saying they're going to measure themselves, see where they're at on Saturday," Rains said. "Boise State feels the same way. No disrespect to UCF, but they know they're not Washington. They feel like they're going to get a chance to show more of who they are on Saturday as well."
Boise State has a new offensive coordinator this season: Bush Hamdan, who was a former quarterback at Boise State in the mid-2000s. He worked with Chris Petersen at Washington and also spent some time in the NFL. He spent the past couple years working with Missouri head coach Eli Drinkwitz, who had traditionally still called the offense.
"The last three games of (Missouri's) season last year, they handed the play-calling duties over to him," Rains said. "By all accounts from Missouri fans and reporters, that was the best Missouri looked all season."
Hamdan actually took a pay cut to leave Missouri so he could return to his alma mater.
"A lot of people think that's he's going to mesh well with Taylen Green, the young quarterback here," Rains said. "Coming into the season, people in Boise thought this offense was going to be one of the best offenses in the country. They have a dynamic quarterback that can run and can pass. They have two 1,000-yard running backs, talented receivers.
"19 points against Washington is not what people expected, but there's not a lot of concern with Bush Hamdan and the offense. I think it was one of those games where it just didn't work. I think the fans expect this offense to be a lot better beginning Saturday."
Boise State quarterback Taylen Green became the full-time starter last season in week five.
"Boise State started 2-2," Rains said. "They had an embarrassing loss to UTEP, which was one of the worst losses in program history. After that game, starting quarterback Hank Bachmeier entered the transfer portal. It was only four games, so he could save a year of eligibility and redshirt. That shocked some people. They also fired the offensive coordinator at the same time, so they went with a new offensive coordinator and new quarterback starting with game five.
"(Green) went 8-2 as the starter down the stretch. Won the bowl game with a big performance. I think he had two 70-plus touchdown runs. He is literally by the metrics the fastest player on Boise State's team and he's the quarterback. You're talking about a 6-6 quarterback. The comparisons to Vince Young are out there. He wears the same number. He's from Texas. He looks just like him. He towers over the line of scrimmage.
"Last year he ran a lot. The whole offseason the thought was you've got to keep him healthy, got to protect him. Make him more of a pocket passer and not take off and run every play. I think some of that backfired a little bit in the Washington game where he was trying too much to force balls instead of taking off when he was open... I think there's going to be more designed quarterback runs in this game.
"He's a guy that people think could have an NFL future. He's a young quarterback, but if he has a strong year this year which people expect, they think going into next year he could be one of the higher-ranked quarterbacks on the board."
Defensively, Rains is also concerned about the lack of a pass rush against Washington. He felt they did okay managing the run, but were torched in the passing game.
Rains feels the best player on defense could be linebacker DJ Schramm, a sixth-year player who had over 100 tackles last year. Other notable players to watch include safety Rodney Robinson, cornerback Markel Reed and edge Demetri Washington.
"This team lost a lot of star power on defense," Rains said. "They lost five guys that were in the NFL training camps. They feel good about the guys behind them. Andy Avalos being a defensive head coach. They feel these guys are ready for the opportunity, but didn't see a lot of that in week one."
For a program trying to regain its footing as a top 25 program, Rains sees this UCF game as one of the biggest in quite some time.
"It sounds crazy to say, but for Boise State it's one of the bigger games in the last decade," Rains said. "It really is. This is a program where there's a little bit of angst among the fans right now. Andy Avalos has come in and not exactly has had a great start. He went 7-5 in his first season. Starts out 2-2 last year. Loses the embarrassing game to UTEP on the road as a 20-point favorite. They make the changes. They kind of catch lightning in a bottle late in the season, finish 10-4 with the bowl win.
"With the Washington loss, again, nobody expect them to win, but Avalos is 17-10 as Boise State's head coach. You talk about Chris Petersen going 92-9. It just hasn't been the same here.
"They also uncharacteristically lost some home games the last couple years. They had a stretch there, I think from 1999 to 2014, they went 100-4 at home over a 15-year period. They're 8-5 I think on the blue the last two years. 10-6 at home the last three years. They've had some struggles. They've had some talented teams come in. Oklahoma State came in. A ranked BYU team came in. Fresno State has been pretty good. They've lost to some good teams, but that didn't matter in the past. They would win at home no matter who they played."
Even if Boise State loses to UCF, Rains still believes the Mountain West Championship is a very attainable goal and thinks they could potentially run the table in the conference.
A win though would go a long way to reviving fan interest in the program to go along with ticket sales and donations. Following the season, Boise State will break ground on an end zone project that will add seating and updated locker rooms.
"For the national brand of Boise State, starting out 0-2 isn't something a lot of people would be very happy with," Rains said. "You throw in the fact it's a Big 12 team coming in. A lot of Boise State fans feel they should have gotten this opportunity, not UCF. I know there's a lot more to it than football success. It's market size and that kind of stuff. It's hard to argue against UCF. But from a straight football perspective, a lot of fans in Boise feel this should be them in the Big 12. I think that adds a little juice to it as well."
Albertsons Stadium will be showing off a couple upgrades for Boise State's home opener, including a new scoreboard and LED lighting (though most of this game should be played in daylight).
Dungeon polling had this game as the second-most popular UCF road trip this season, trailing only Oklahoma. Rains is actually a Kansas alum and recommended that trip.
"I say go to Lawrence for the Kansas game," Rains said. "That's a sneaky awesome town. You've got Kansas City right there. Great restaurants. Massachusetts Street. It's a sleeper road trip. The Kansas game you'd really enjoy.
"About Boise, it's an awesome town. A lot of great restaurants. 8th Street is the area with outdoor patios, a lot of great restaurants, microbreweries. 6th Street is more of the college bar scene.
"There are beautiful hikes you can do. The official rafting thing isn't open, but if you buy a $30 raft at Wal-Mart you can still float down the Boise River right through downtown by the football stadium. A lot of hiking and cool things to do. It's a beautiful time of year too. It's going to be nice weather on Saturday."
As for restaurants, Rains recommends "The James" which overlooks the football stadium.
"Boise is an awesome town," Rains said.
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